Statistics 101

Economic statistics can be overwhelming. In additon, they fluctuate more than a Presidential candidate's position on an issue. What virtually all economists believe, regardless of political orientation, is that some statistics are more reliable than others and represent real themes for the future of an economy. These are GDP, Consumer Spending, Private Sector job growth and Inflation. These are the blue chips when looking at a macroeconomic analysis for really understanding what is happening. If you listen solely to the political debate, the President is being marginalized by his opponents and being ridiculed for having been responsible for our economic malaise. In fact, one of Newt Gingrich's famous stump lines is to declare America in the "Obama Depression". Sounds catchy and is red meat for the haters, but in economic terms, makes no sense at all. So let's look at the stats for real. This morning it was announced that consumer spending has risen for the sixth consecutive month. Private job creation has been positive for 21 consecutive months. Inflation in total has been stable and historically low and our GDP has shown slow GROWTH for every quarter since 2009. We can argue degrees and levels, we can argue tax policy and we can argue the level of regulation required for avoiding future catastrophes, but we cannot argue that the performance over the past two years is a marked and obvious improvement over where we were. In spite of Congressional inaction, declarative statements regarding the need for a one term Presidency and gamesmanship on both sides resulting in stalemate, we are moving ahead. I will take this trend any day of the week. Some statistics just don't lie. Where are you Americans for reason and truth?